Slightly off topic, the USS San Francisco (SSN-711) collision on 8th January 2005 must have had pretty long odds.
This has aviation parallels. The San Francisco hit a sea mount SW of Guam enroute Brisbane. The seamount they hit was not on the chart they were using, although it was on 4 other charts they held but had not crosschecked, although misplotted by 2-3 nms. 4 minutes before impact they upped the speed to max (33 kts). A bit like blind flying below safety height without Terrain Avoidance Radar and being surprised when you hit something.