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Old 23rd Oct 2013, 02:07
  #437 (permalink)  
Machinbird
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
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A Somewhat Different View

The aircrew actions in the AF447 accident seem strange to those of us looking back on this accident.

There are a few observations I would like to make about the situation that this crew faced. I think the known facts do not contradict this view, but I am working from memory and it's been a while since I reviewed the accident, so feel free to correct me where I stray from the facts.

First, let us start with the PNF, Robert. He had just been awakened from sleep by the Captain and had been told that the guy flying the aircraft would be in charge. He was undoubtedly awake, but I suspect he was suffering from sleep inertia and was not fully "with it." When the A/P and Autothrottle disconnected, he had been sitting in the seat for about 10 minutes. He was aware of the mishandling of the aircraft, particularly the upward roll of the altimeter numbers and tic marks but was really not mentally locked on to the actual altitudes they were going through, thus his strange comment, " You are going up, so go down." Maybe it is just my old fashioned way of flying, but I would have thought he would have said something like 'You are 1500' above assigned altitude. Get the nose down!' His reluctance to take control might well have been a result of his sleep inertia which he would have been aware of. Likely he did not yet trust himself to perform.

Then there is Bonin, the PF. He was suddenly thrust from quietly monitoring the instruments into NOISE.
The cavalry charge, then the C chord altitude alert, and a few chirps from the stall warning on top of that. No sooner did he grab the stick and begin to correct the roll angle when the aircraft over-responded in an unfamiliar way and he began a roll oscillation. (Alt2b Law was now in effect) The aircraft was in roll direct. He apparently he had no prior experience in flying in Alt2b Law in the simulator at altitude and likely, no experience in flying in Direct law at altitude. As a result, his mental model of the aircraft response was out of calibration and his control inputs were well beyond appropriate for roll.

I do not know how many of you have experienced a roll PIO in any setting, or for that matter any PIO (pilot induced oscillation). From my one roll PIO experience in an early simulator, I found it to be extremely startling and attention getting and I would expect that Bonin experienced a similar feeling of startlement and concern. This likely fully focused his attention on the roll problem to the exclusion of almost everything else. His solution to the problem was to try to get ahead of the oscillation. It eventually worked after 30+ seconds of fighting the aircraft, but one of the reasons it worked is that the roll response was decreasing as the aircraft slowed. (The preferred solution is to stop aggravating the aircraft)

It is very likely that Bonin's nose up efforts were initially inadvertent as he struggled with the roll, then later, deliberate as he either reverted to seat of the pants flying or started flying the flight director. His thought processes were not logical by then and he was focused on a narrow part of his surroundings to the exclusion of almost all else.

By this point in time Bonin was in full fight or flight mode and Robert was getting concerned as well. They were not working together and the aircraft was departing controlled flight and they were entering test pilot territory.

My personal opinion is that if Bonin had not overcontrolled the aircraft initially, the accident would not have happened. He would have begun to follow his training, however imperfectly and the crew would have begun to work together sufficiently well to continue the flight. The lack of experience in direct law at altitude was a key contributing factor that allowed a roll PIO to develop, and from there, it all snowballed downhill.
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