It really depends which job they are going for G.
Which is the whole crux of this debate.
The high end jobs which bealzebub is on about the recruitment process usually starts just after they have completed the IR because that's when they know if they have a first time pass or not. Then things get finalised while they do the MCC/JOT side of things. Then off they go current as they can be onto the type rating/sim assessment.
Which is more than likely why the those that have access to a 737 sim do so well with Ryanair. They have just spent there MCC and JOT doing the sim profiles for the selection with a grumpy old TRE battering the preferred style of CRM into them. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a script for the selection.
Those that shoved out of the door are in a completely different boat. They know that 1-2 months behind them there is another 20-30 pilots from the same school chasing the same jobs. Also as well the IR skills are very perishable at that stage of things without experience to hard wire them in.
They are also trained to work on an automated flight deck. The only thing automated on my heap is the engine start. So after about 6 months they are in the B list what ever they apply for. And for those company's that the training department are modular trained themselves they will just go straight into the bucket.
In general the modular pilot wouldn't be spending that amount or anywhere near it maybe 8k for a FI rating. Or they would hold that rest of the money back for a type rating and staying IFR current. Once you get over 1000 hours the amount of jobs available increases significantly. This is partly to do with insurance and partly to do with cutting the numbers down to something manageable that apply. We are talking in the region of about 1000 low hour guys actively sending CV's out currently. If you add in the none brits that puts another 3-400 on. And you get about 100 none EU citizens thinking they are doing you a favour offering there services with 200-300 hours and no work permit.
MEP doesn't really add anything to equation these days. IFR time and total time does to meet EASA requirement for single crew ops. Which I might add PC 12 captains are in the same pay range as Bealzebubs FO's.
Also as well the 1500 hour ATPL comes into play as in general they will be flying about 300-600 hours a year. A lot of these smaller company's will want them to be available for upgrade with a minimum of two winters under their belt. So if you take them in at 200 hours your nearly 4 years before they get there ATPL. Some might say shock horror putting them in the LHS after only 1300 hours but in reality in those 1300 hours they will have done getting on for 3000 takeoff's, approaches and landings in daylight/night and most wx conditions. If we get them at 1000 then they will have about 1500 sectors under there belt when they go for the ATPL LST. First winter they will just be fighting with the aircraft second they will know what's going on with the big picture.
Out of the crew base across all company's operating my type there must be about 140 crew qualified to fly it in Europe
In the last year I personally know 10 of them that have moved on to jets. 4 of them to 757 and bigger and 6 that have moved to heavy long haul biz jets.
The ones I don't know personally there are about another 20 that I have heard of. Mostly biz jets but more than a few to 100 ton plus machines and a surprising number to 747. Don't worry they have an integrated trained cruise pilot to make sure they press the right buttons and make huffing noises when they brief for a visual then hand fly from 5000ft.
We are even having speculative applications from heavy tin drivers in the middle east/Asia wanting some form of lifestyle back. A halfing in salary is not a problem working from 5am to 10:30am 4 sectors then home to the wife and kids 5 days a week they are more than happy with that.
So this is the reason why I really just don't see where Bealzebub is coming from.
I have no doud't they are going to want names dates and company ID's of the people I am talking about which I won't give. They live in a different world to the one I work in. That world isn't a bleak as they make out. They have a preferred method of training and along with quite a few from that side of the industry they more than likely wish that the modular side of things would just go away. It pulls income away from their preferred method any generally puts a spanner in the works because the supply vastly out strips the demand. But there is a requirement for a vast number of people to use the preferred supply to keep it economic and not to collapse.
CTC could very easily provide every single available job in the UK including the crappy jobs and everyone would get work. The 30 odd modular schools would have to go and also the other big two. That's is how much over supply there is to the market.
So
Support your local large airline training their pilots. The only way you will get a seat on the airline is by buying one in the back.