later research has shown that Speer was pretty much correct - up until 1944 it was an irritant - after that it started to make a difference but, TBH the Red Army would have got to Berlin anyway by 1946 at the latest
That is debatable, and even if they did, at what cost? The Soviet Air Force was heavily biased towards support for the Red Army, with very little in the way of long range strategic bombers or maritime aircraft. Thus the Soviet war effort was greatly supported by the RAF/USAAF bombing of Germany without which they would have met with much stiffer resistance in the areas of men and materials. The Soviet Air Force played little or no part in the strategic bombing campaign, certainly after the very early months of their participation in the war. Nor did they provide much in the way of air support for the Arctic convoys which were bringing essential supplies to them - they had no equivalent of the FW Condor, the Catalina or the longe range Wellingtons operated by Coastal Command and could offer nothing in the way of air cover for the convoys until they were virtually in sight of the Russian ports.
There has often been a tendency (not least amongst the Russians themselves) to see WW2 as a titanic struggle between the forces of Soviet communism and German fascism, with all other participants merely a sideshow, but the Soviet struggle was facilitated to a very great extent by the efforts and sacrifices of the air forces (and navies) of the West.