Glancing Blows and Ricochets
Dr Syn and Picky
Yes we are agreed except about the initial damage being that far forward on the wing cuff. It would appear to me to be so very tangential to the airflow that any telling blow would have had to be a ricochet forward (unrealistic).
The yellow highlit section in the diagram above (and anywhere further outboard) would be my guess for the position of the initial damaging blow by the ET's icy foam. The damage wouldn't necessarily be visually apparent - but once shattered, the positional (retention) integrity of an RCC section would be compromised (as would its anti-oxidation preventive coating).
The in-fuselage sensor record of overheating should be able to be explained away by conductive heat along a metal structural member. Like Dr Syn, I'm very busy and may have missed the basic reason as to why the forward wing cuff now figures (apart from the very "open to interpretation" graphic transpositions and superimpositions).