I've been pretty quite on this one whilst considering my thoughts and I'm no closer to clarifying them in my own head so I thought I may as well vent them on the others.
If AO expands into areas not currently operated by QF then it will be a boon for QF pilots. Blind freddy knew (and I told the Chief Pilot of AO in April 2002 when I flew with him) that AO would be flying SYD or MEL- BLI within twelve months of start up so this is no surprise. QF has maintained for years that BLI, with it's high rate of frequent flyers rewards points and minimal business travel was losing money (or close to it) since QF first began flying there so in this case, their expansion to this port is not unexpected- at least not by any forward thinking QF pilot. If they spread their wings to Saigon (sorry, I can't spell the 'new' name), KL, Shanghai (which I think they've annouced), Seol, Bangkok (and beyond) then it will add to EXTRA commands for QF pilots. Sure, it won't be at the current rates but it beats the flying having gone to others completely. At least now we have the choice of going or not. I will admit that if they continue to take our international flying though it will be the very trojan horse with which people talk. Again though, at least QF pilots will still have jobs as opposed to just not being required. I'm a fair way up the list now so we are talking about halving the current list before the 'last on, first off' rule gets to me but that doesn't stop me from being concerned about future job propects.
As to the cost of the airline, I'm a little dissappointed in this area. They wanted a 20% reduction but on pay rates alone I reckon we've given them about 28%. QF pilots get about 1100 credit hours for about 800 stick. At the same pay rate, AO get 800 hours for 800 stick. 72% of their mainline bretheren. Tack on the savings made in 'other' areas of the LH pilot award (transport, leave, etc) then it starts to add toward a 30%+ saving for QF. I'd LOVE to be proven wrong on my figures there (especially considering my first command could well be a 'southern base' in a couple of years) but thats the way I read the agreement.
I'm not sure how much the 'duplication of managers' plays in this regard. I'd actually like to see the AO way of doing things slide across to QF. Less chiefs and more indians would be a good thing I'd think.
So overall where do I stand? Dunno. It may be a good thing for us, it may not. It may well be a bit each way. Time will tell. The only thing that ANYONE can be sure about is that NONE of us KNOW where this little ride is taking us- and that probably includes the powers that be!