Or am I missing something obvious
Don't think so. I think it is Manning that are missing something obvious, and I don't think the problem of retention will only be restricted to Pilots. I say that as someone who is seeing a lot of the youngsters (particularly GD/WSO and WSOps) I used to fly with PVR'ing at what I assume for 'the system' is an alarming rate; if I was very cynical of course, perhaps you could argue that this was always part of the Master Plan to get the RAF numbers down below whatever the latest 'target' is ASAP.
I believe what started as a trickle is now turning into a serious flood. No doubt there is lots of hand-wringing going on among various members of the Air Force Board who are seeing the situation slip beyond their control at an alarming rate. All I can say to that is "You reap what you sow you completely clueless dickheads".
Standing by for the RAF to disappear up it's own arsehole!