Peak:
No one is being a smart alec. I, too, have academic and work credentials that I am quite sure are at least equal to your own. But like yours, mine are not in aeronautical engineering. Boeing, Airbus, the NTSB, the AAIB, the JAA, the FAA and the major airlines have a degree of understanding of these issues that simply does not compare with mine -- and their track record seems to indicate a very strong rate of success in their judgments. While this rate is not 100%, I am quite sure that adding my own technical knowledge to their knowledge will not push this rate to above what it is.
I, too, have quirks and superstitions (we all do). And while I may act on these (and other) things, I do this because they make me feel better (which is the purpose of life), not because I have performed a serious analysis that allows a dispassionate conclusion that the real situation has now been improved.