I am glad that a few continue to show concern for this historic accident. Some interesting points raised by
OT. I remain convinced, however, that the foam alone (now officially
3 pieces) was capable of doing the necessary damage, with or without added ice. I also believe that any ice involved was no more than subliminal but could indeed have precipitated debonding of the foam, for reasons already stated.
sir, there are no known pics of that section of the LE, sadly.
There have been many previous significant hits on the TPS from foam, and well documented. I am inclined to believe that Columbia's TPS took
at least two hits which damaged different sections of the heat shield, thus making the "back-tracking" of the break up sequence more difficult for the investigators. The RCC area still makes by far the most disasterous likelihood, with the possibility that any tile damage alone might have been survivable. But where was the RCC breached?
The original theories are holding up uncannily well. NASA provides a comprehensive tile pattern diagram
here (PDF 337kb), which can be expanded in good detail. I am told it is quite accurate by those in the know. They also released a significant
photo of a recovered portion of the left wing. Whilst I have no doubt that someone already knows exactly where it came from, I have found no official reference (OK, tell me I missed it).
Anyway, having mucked about with it for a while, it seems to me that it is from just inboard of the forward edge of the left wheel well. The
blue outlines represent my efforts, whilst the
yellow segment is an alternative theory doing the rounds elsewhere. If anyone can spot an elongated trapezoid like the one centre left (lower pics), with similar surrounding patterns, feel free to contradict - I'm not proud!
Note that the bare metal at the bottom of the picture has a smooth edge, as if it were cut by a torch. Not symptomatic of a break, or split.
So the questions are, just how many breaches in the TPS were there? Did the "spray" evident in the launch photos include significant "tile dust"? Answers on a post . . . please.