That sort of poor weather forecasting and moving of the goal posts simply invalidates the 3 hour validity of a TTF and makes it useless.
Pick a TTF any one will do!
I have read this prelim report over and over.
Have a look at the speci issued for mildura some 3 minutes after the qantas diverted. Broken 200ft. If thats not a hazard alert i dont know what is. Was that relayed to crew? I don't think so.
Absolutely!!!!!!
This whole incident is simply due to utterly woeful weather forecasting. BOM are specialists who should know more than the average line pilot, they should not have to be second guessed.
The ADL TTF's showed 150m in fog with a FM 30mins later saying fine and beaut. Talk about leading people up the garden path. The conditions were deteriorating yet they were still saying come on in, we think its going to be fine in 30mins. Utter crap!
The MIA TAF had a TEMPO for BKN006. Why on earth didn't they say hey it looks conducive to fog, lets put that on the TAF until we see how the day pans out. Nothing sends more alarm bells to pilots than FOG on a forecast.
The MIA METAR went from BKN039 to BKN002 in 18mins. Shows how useless the auto METAR is (except for duping pilots), fog rolling in but the AWS can't see it coming.
BOM need to lift their game and adopt a CONSERVATIVE approach to their forecasting.