In other words, make sure you have enough fuel on board to cope with the
unpredictable.
How unpredictable does it need to get? I always carry fuel for KG when I go to PTH. That is carrying fuel for the unpredictable. Should I then also carry fuel to go KG-ADL every time in case the unpredictable then occurs at KG?
How much discretion does the forecaster have in issuing a TAF with PROB FG even if the modeling doesn't suggest it will form? Can a forecaster be conservative with his/her forecasting based on experience and gut feeling?
I can understand the lack of a PROB FG for ADL, but given that why were the crews advised that MIA would be a suitable destination? Why wouldn't a forecaster use his/her experience and knowledge to think that if unforecast fog has formed at ADL then it is probable that it would also form at MIA?
