BOM Forecasting Accuracy
One of the problems with BOM and Ozzie Govt spending cutbacks is that there are less local experienced people doing the forecasting.
A lot of present day forecasting is done relying only on historic data modelling and statistics. So, they _will_ get it right more often than not - that's how statistics work!
But when some conditions "outside-the-box" are looming, they will get it wrong as they need LOCAL experience and a window to look out-of to make reasoned forecasts.
Another factor is that the local BOM may not be "local". For Adelaide, they could be outsourced to Sydney, Canberra or Melbourne (or Mumbai). Now that cannot help.
Having worked closely with BOM staff in Antarctic Aviation, I have seen first hand the complete incompetence with forecasting and in that environment you can't afford to F@#% up!
There is no substitute for local area knowledge and experience, the models aren't always right...