It's the weekend and I've had a chance to crunch the CAA stats again:
Overall message - NCL is growing much more healthily than DTV
DTV had 13,801 pax in May, up 1.3 % on May 2012 - gain equates to 173 pax
DTV rolling year has 163,811 pax
NCL had 407,859 pax in May, up 4.0 % on May 2012 - gain equates to 15,712 pax
NCL rolling year has 4,381,899 pax
In May 2012, for every 1 passenger at DTV, there were 28.8 passengers at NCL
In May 2013, for every 1 passenger at DTV, there were 29.6 passengers at NCL
As an additional reference, in May 2009 (i.e. post credit crunch), for every 1 passenger at DTV, there were 15.2 passengers at NCL
Aberdeen route for May
DTV - 3,135 pax, down 2% from 3,195 pax, meaning a loss of 60 passengers
NCL - 2,860 pax, up 35% from 2,122 pax, meaning a gain of 738 passengers
Palma route for May
DTV - 1,230 pax, up 2% from 1,207 pax meaning a gain of 23 passengers
NCL - 30,658 pax, up 4% from 29,442 pax meaning a gain of 1,216 passengers
Amsterdam route for May
DTV - 8,048 pax, down 4% from 8,406 pax meaning a loss of 358 passengers
NCL - 30,343 pax, up 34% from 22,641 pax meaning a gain of 7,702 passengers
Note - Easyjet began flying NCL-AMS 5x weekly from Dec 2012.
On a Europe-wide basis, Easyjet saw a load factor in May of 88.1%
Easyjet flew NCL-AMS on 23 days in May. Using, a 156-seat A319 with 88.1% load factor (ie average of 137.4 pax turn up for a flight), we get 6,320 passengers, which falls far short of the NCL-AMS route being up by 7,702 passengers - this suggests KLM are seeing passenger numbers up by 6% on the NCL-AMS route, in contrast to DTV-AMS being down 4%
Even if we assume Easyjet had a 100% load factor, KLM are still seeing NCL doing significantly better year-on-year compared to MME
Thus KLM is seeing a clear shift by passengers from MME to NCL, even if Easyjet are seeing 100% load factors on their NCL-AMS route.
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 18th Jul 2013 at 16:51.