Our job has two key aspects:
Science and Art.
The Science is the black and white stuff. SOP's, rules, systems knowledge etc.
At best, forecast is a human prediction of what mother nature will be doing in the future. A mixture of Science and Art. While it is a document by which we apply our science based rules, one must remember that it does not come with an ironclad guarantee.
Sometimes we have need to look beyond the rule book, and ask,
"WHAT IF............"
If that means looking the KPI seeking fleet manager in the eye and telling him you made a COMMAND JUDGEMENT to carry more fuel or delay a flight or whatever then be it.
Anyone can be rule based trained to do the Science part of our job. It ain 't difficult. What is difficult is to "know when to show them, know when to throw them...", as Kenny Rogers used to say.
In the aftermath of an occurrence, the benchmark will not purely be the was it legal. The question will be asked, "what would/did a reasonable person have done/do in the same circumstances? A peer comparison. This approach is common in the medical profession. If 99 had done "X" and one did "Y" then there may be perception issues.
(This is a general discussion only and not directed at the issue under investigation)
Last edited by illusion; 21st Jun 2013 at 09:53.