FWIW
From the BoM Aeronautical Services Handbook (Operational Manual for the Provision of Aviation Weather Services in Australia).
Investigations
The Bureau prepares reports in relation to aviation accidents and incidents, usually in response to requests from government agencies responsible for aviation safety and from the aviation industry.
The principal types of reports are:
a. Meteorological information for Aviation Safety Investigation Reports (ASIRs), and
b. Aviation Meteorological Incident Reports (AMIRs).
Meteorological Information for Aviation Safety Investigation Reports (ASIRs)
The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has the primary statutory responsibility for investigating aviation incidents or accidents. The Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) may also conduct such investigations in carrying out its responsibilities as regulator of civil aviation safety.
As part of an investigation into an aviation incident or accident, a request for meteorological information may be sought from the Bureau through the National Manager Aviation Weather Services (SRAV).
Procedures for the provision of meteorological information are maintained by SRAV and can be found on the Bureau’s Aviation Weather Services intranet.
All relevant information (charts, observations forecasts and warnings) is to be retained in the case of an incident or accident.
Aviation Meteorological Incident Reports (AMIR)
Aviation industry clients (such as regional, domestic and international airlines, and Airservices Australia) may request an AMIR when a meteorology-related incident has a significant adverse effect on its operations. Typical incidents include unforecast weather causing multiple aircraft to divert to other destinations; and significantly over-forecast weather requiring excessive fuel to be carried.
The purpose of an AMIR is to review the service delivery aspects of the incident and make recommendations for remedial action where appropriate.
Procedures for the provision of an AMIR are maintained by SRAV and can be found on the Bureau’s Aviation Weather Services intranet.
No doubt both QF and DJ have asked for an AMIR.
In relation to Probability Forecasts
Probability Forecasts, indicated by PROB%ddhh/ddhh, shall only be used if the estimated probability of occurrence is thirty or forty percent, and shall only be used with reference to thunderstorms or poor visibility (less than the alternate minimum) resulting from fog, mist, dust, smoke or sand, e.g. PROB30 0118/0123 0500 FG. PROB is included in the forecast before the RMK section. If greater than or equal to 50 percent, reference is made to the phenomena in the forecast itself, not by the addition of a PROB.
And specifically in relation to Fog
INTER and TEMPO are not to be used with fog.
Adelaide in one of the aerodromes that has an Airport Weather Briefing prepared (Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney and during the wet season, Darwin).
Airport Weather Briefings (AWB) are provided for some capital city aerodromes and are used by both operators and Air Traffic Services. They are an extension to the TAF service aimed at expanding on the information provided in the TAF.
The office responsible for the preparation of the TAF prepares the AWB.
AWBs are issued in conjunction with the routine TAF but take a lower priority and are not amended or updated (except for the Code Grey component which can be amended as a separate product).
Airport Weather Briefings may contain the following sections (as per local arrangement): Current TAF, TAF Summary, Thunderstorm Potential, Other Possibilities, Outlook, Code Grey, Issuing Officer and Notes.
The TAF Summary is an explanation of the TAF, using plain language, with no jargon or acronyms. It may include the synoptic situation, local effects and reasons for forecast changes in weather conditions.
The Thunderstorm Potential section highlights the possibility of thunderstorms occurring within a 20nm radius of the aerodrome reference point and is used for flight planning and air traffic management purposes. Phrases such as slight chance, chance and likely should be used instead of a percentage. INTER or TEMPO should not be used.
The Other Possibilities section should include comments on other possibilities that may occur during the validity of the TAF. It can include conditions that have a less than 30% chance of occurring, or if there is an uncertainty as to the timing of an event. Particular attention should be paid to SAM (special alternate minima) conditions, noting that decisive phrases such as “conditions could drop to below SAM” are more useful to the aviation industry than “conditions could drop to SAM”.
The Outlook section includes a brief description of the weather for the following 2 or 3 days based on the Public Weather forecasts. It should also include the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures where available.
Code Grey information is included in the afternoon issue of the AWB.
Code Grey advice is a special forecast service intended to supplement the routine 06 to 12 TAF. It is designed to reduce the operational impact, particularly on long-haul flights arriving the following morning, of later amendments to the 06 TAF.
The service gives flight planners some insight into alternative weather scenarios being considered by the forecaster, and as such it provides early advice of a possible later TAF amendment. It is issued when there is a small but realistic chance of fog, thunderstorms, or visibility or cloud (BKN or more) below Special Alternate Minima. The probabilities used will be 5, 10 or 20% only.
So PROB 5, 10 or 20 can be included in AWB, PROB 30 or 40 included in TAF.
It would be interesting to see the afternoon issue for the day concerned as to whether Code Grey was included (previous say of course).
http://reg.bom.gov.au/general/reg/ash/ASH.pdf