Originally Posted by Kodachrome
When I was training I was told that if the prediction for something to occur was equal to or greater than 50% then it would appear on the forecast without a PROB.
Never seen that one in writing though so I'm not sure how true it is
Kodachrome, I've read that recently but blowed if I can find the actual reference now.
Crikey advises that the ATSB have announced an investigation, as per the following links.
ATSB investigating Virgin Mildura fog incident | Plane Talking
Investigation: AO-2013-100 - Low fuel diversion involving Boeing 737-8FE, VH-YIR, Mildura Airport, Victoria on 18 June 2013