N.B. I hereby formally acknowledge that this is only my idle wondering; I was not present, don't have enough data and I am only speculating "over a coffee", while waiting for 'the report' to appear; provided booze, bad living and old age don't cart me off first.
TW # 81 "Has anyone ever seen anything higher than PROB30 for FG".
I've never checked this out; but, a wise old pelican (Met man at Sydney) told me one day when I was jumping up and down about the 'bloody forecast', "we only need to within plus or minus 70% of actual, to be within our required accuracy boundaries". So, 30% prob +70 =100% correct if forecast right; or conversely >60% right, if forecast wrong. - Just saying. - Tricky stuff this fog, clear sky, light breeze, Dp and OAT close and closing, high pressure, winter, early morning at a known fog factory near you. The met office computer model might not 'see' it, but I betcha the 'locals' know.
But was Mildura not a passing strange choice though?; Brisvegas to Adelaide track, (round numbers, broad brush) from dim memory (Venel is it ?) was about 210 nms from Adelaide. From there it's 275 ish to Adelaide and it's "about" 260 nms to Melbourne, well before TOD anyway, lets say, for sake of argument 35 minutes out, 15 before TOD. Plenty of options from there. Even from o' head YMIA it's only what? 250 nms to Melbourne as opposed to 180 odd nms to Adelaide. That's only + 70 odd miles, which, in a 73 series anything, is not too long a stretch. The Adelaide
met data does show the trend toward fog, so I am left, still wondering, why risk Mildura, provided Melbourne was readily available? But then again, I wonder about a lot of things, mostly about the same things Capt. Claret was (#64), back up the page there a bit.
SN – "But we had bucketload so was a no brainier to wait it out."
Tim Tam to that man, for a pure definition of no sweat aviating. The met data I've seen provided and this time of the year, would have me reaching for "the books" and a sharp pencil. Q) Why have you always got 4 tons fuel on board landing Bloggs?. (A) 'Cos I can't get any more in the little bugger, that's why......
