If BOM hasnt tried to kill you at least once you havnt been flying long enough.
Accuracy or lack there of in Aussie forceasts is or from my experience pretty common.
If you are basing fuel decisions relying totally on accuracy of forecasts you are setting yourself up. How many times to forecasts change post departure and if you are basing your fuel uplift on a trans con flight from Bris to Per do they really know what the weather will be in 6 hiurs time? Jeez they cant even get what it will be like in 3 hours time!
To expect 100% accuracy is im sorry never ever going to happen.
My questions would be and i havnt seen it posted did Mildura have a prob of fog of fog on the TAF?
Was there a TTF which superseded it without fog on it?
Having diverted several times while operating into Tassie due unforecast fog in Slowbart the first thing on my diversion checklist is W..does my diversion field have an acceptable forecast that makes it Legal to divert there.
As frequently Launy may have a prob of fog ruling it out as an option as to divert there then have it roll in as what happened yesterday means you have insufficient to return to Melbs so its straight back to Melbs you go Cavok or not at Launy.
On company fuel policies since when does that ever obligate a Captain to carry less fuel than they see fit you are protected under the Regs every day to carry as much as you feel you require..
The guys did well to get it down just live to know what he forecasts said..