Slight thread drift but there is relevance and as Sunny points out…perhaps a hole passing through a slice of Swiss cheese??
spelling nazi’s post on the thread dealing with this subject
‘spells’ 
it out best then Captain Claret brings in some
‘clarity’!
Captain Claret:
Just musing out loud...
I wonder if the airline's (collectively not just Virgin) bean counters had been on board enroute to the World Bean Counter's AGM in ADL, and had all had to go through the experience, including the BRACE, BRACE, BRACE; would they continue to advocate minimalist legal fuel "because statistically you'll just carry it for the sake of carrying it"?
Or would the experience, actually having some fear of the outcome, change their statistical outlook to permit the sensible carriage of an alternate, whether the current rules require it or not?
Hmmmm.
And 777 Steve makes a comment on Ben’s article that perhaps puts a better perspective on this tale:
Posted June 18, 2013 at 7:13 pm | Permalink
Aircraft operated under CASA oversight are legally entitled to dispatch without fuel to reach an alternate under IFR rules.
Australia is almost unique in this regard and as recent events have borne out, it trails the world in what is considered best practice with respect to flights operated with an alternate that is available. That is of course not to say that extra fuel isn’t uplifted to account for operational contingencies, I’m merely pointing out that in most circumstances a VH registered airliner flying domestically can legally commence its descent with no ability to, reach an alternate.
Why YSSY YBBN or YPPH don’t invest in CAT3 A or B is beyond me, but maybe that’s the point..it requires investment, investment that doesn’t provide a financial return..merely a higher level of operational flexibility, something the airport operators can’t make money off.
With respect to ATC Ben, having been in a similar circumstance when our destination was downgraded to CAT2 thanks to an equipment failure, I’d suggest the crew(s) most likely asked ATC what and where was still open and accepting arrivals, and then decided where to go. Unless you have an F18 off your wingtip, it remains the PIC’s decision…despite what many ATCO’s working for ASA would like to think.
Okay clear as mud yet??
No well perhaps we should look at the information that was available to the aircrew (other than the TTFs)and place it against the tracking info for the flight:
TAF YPAD 171703Z 1718/1824 VRB05KT 9999 FEW030 SCT045 FM181000 VRB05KT CAVOK RMK
TAF AMD YPAD 172100Z 1721/1824 05005KT 9999 FEW025 FM180000 VRB05KT 9999 FEW030 SCT045 FM181000 VRB05KT CAVOK PROB30 1721/1724 0500 FG RMK
METAR YPAD 172030Z 08005KT 9999 FEW022 05/05 Q1019 NOSIG
METAR YPAD 172100Z 05004KT 9999 FEW022 05/05 Q1019 NOSIG
SPECI YPAD 172111Z 06005KT 9999 MIFG FEW022 SCT058 05/05 Q1020 NOSIG
METAR YPAD 172130Z 06004KT 9999 MIFG FEW022 05/04 Q1020 NOSIG
SPECI YPAD 172130Z 06004KT 9999 MIFG FEW022 05/04 Q1020 NOSIG
SPECI YPAD 172200Z 01006KT 9999 1000NW PRFG MIFG FEW022 05/05 Q1020 FM2200 01005KT 0500 FG FM2300 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 172205Z 01006KT 2000 0500N FG FEW022 05/04 Q1020 FM2205 01005KT 0500 FG FM2300 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 172215Z 02006KT 0500 0250N FG OVC001 05/04 Q1020 FM2300 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 172230Z 04005KT 0150 FG OVC001 06/05 Q1020 FM2300 05005KT 9999 FEW025
METAR YPAD 172230Z 04005KT 0150 FG OVC001 06/05 Q1020 FM2300 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 172300Z 04006KT 0150 FG OVC000 06/06 Q1021 FM2330 05005KT 9999 FEW025
METAR YPAD 172300Z 04006KT 0150 FG OVC000 06/06 Q1021 FM2330 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 172330Z 04005KT 0150 FG OVC000 07/07 Q1021 FM2400 05005KT 9999 FEW025
METAR YPAD 180000Z 01005KT 0150 FG OVC000 08/07 Q1021 FM0100 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 180000Z 01005KT 0150 FG OVC000 08/07 Q1021 FM0100 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 180030Z 01004KT 0150 FG OVC000 08/08 Q1022 FM0100 05005KT 9999 FEW025
SPECI YPAD 180100Z 03001KT 0500 0350N FG OVC001 09/09 Q1022 FM0130 05005KT 9999 FEW025
And the tracking info can be viewed
‘here’.
The TOPD time to YPAD appears to be 08:53 EST or 22:53 UTC and the amended TAF was issued at 2100 UTC and wetbulb temp=drybulb temp from at least 2030 UTC…so could you have picked the trend prior to TOPD?
Perhaps this incident is more relevant to the previous inquiry (Pilot Training and Airline Safety) and Mr Lyon’s '
submission 18' but there are definitely some similarities to the Norfolk ditching in the area of wx forecasts etc…but I’ve drifted enough and people can draw their own parallels (or not??). Oh well back to those recommendations...
By the way the ATSB investigation has started just don't hold your breath...
Investigation: AO-2013-100 - Low fuel diversion involving Boeing 737-8FE, VH-YIR, Mildura Airport, Victoria on 18 June 2013
Lefty can't track a YMIA TAF for yesterday maybe someone on the other thread can help you out...someone did mention YMIA had a prob of fog on at the time and that also seems to be fairly standard for this time of the year just look at today's TAF..??
TAF YMIA 190407Z 1906/1918
VRB05KT CAVOK
PROB30 1915/1918 0500 FG
RMK
T 13 09 05 04 Q 1023 1024 1025 1024