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Old 5th Jun 2013, 20:46
  #33 (permalink)  
421C
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Just what the world needs - another light business jet. I hope Pilatus get
successful with this thing, but the other makers can't even shift the ones
already certified: Cessna has halted much of it's Citation production,
Hawker/Beechcraft line will never fly again, the beautiful SJ30 has sold what -
4 units in total, and the rest of them are barely limping by maybe with the
exemption of the Embraer Phenom.

The market just isn't there to support
up to 10 different makers. And if you ask me - wouldn't you want to go faster
than a jet and burn 40% less gas? Meet the Piaggio Avantii - and guess what -
that one doesn't sell either. There are fundamental flaws in this segment that
can not be overcome just by introducing newer stuff like the Pc-24 and the
HondaJet
I'm not so sure the segment isn't suffering a cyclical effect. The last boom led to a lot of development say around 2000 and a lot of light jet sales in the last decade. The problem now is a double whammy
- new aircraft are "old" designs. Even the avionics are obsolete IMHO (Proline 21, G1000 are overdue for replacement by Fusion and G3000)
- new aircraft compete against the volume of 2000's used jets but have little advantage

All aircraft are a compromise but the incentive to buy new is when designs introduce efficiency and improvement. You can get better range/payload putting new engines on a 1970s Citation that you can buying a new CJ. The Mustang was a delight when introduced but why buy a new one, when the compromises in a $3.5m 2013 aircraft are exactly the same as in a used one at half the price.

I love the King Air, but the brutal truth is that HB spent 30 years allowing the aftermarket industry to do product development instead of them. So you can build your own King Air from a used airframe for half the cost of a new one, with new engines and avionics.

Good clean sheet designs sell, as Embraer are finding. Major product improvements sell, as Cessna found with the CJs in the 2000s. But old products don't sell so well in a tough point of the cycle when they are competing with their identical used fleet only a few years old.

At least Pilatus are offering what could be a breakthrough in the single-pilot ~$9m segment - a midsize cabin and "utility" in terms of short-field and special payloads. Good luck to them. Every other makers' product offerings are frozen in 2007-8, but it's 5-6 years later.

Last edited by 421C; 5th Jun 2013 at 20:50.
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