Those who predict consolidation in the ME do not understand the model and/or culture.
The joint venture of Gulf Air failed, in part, because Gulf States do not work well together. Everyone has the "my dick is bigger than yours" syndrome and have a burning need to be seen to be the biggest, fastest, tallest etc.
There will be no voluntary consolidation. Qatar and Abu Dhabi have all the money amongst the big 3 carriers, so there will be no short/near term financial pressure for either of those to merge with anyone. Dubai have the brand and the network, but are pretty thin on finances, relatively speaking. There is no way they will be able to buy out EY. Firstly they couldn't fund it and secondly, Abu Dhabi would simply not allow it. Further more, those familiar with the ME will know that the changing of the name of the Burj Dubai to the Burj Khalifa, sent a pretty clear message as to who is in charge.
Lastly, it doesn't matter how close their hubs are because it is not about bringing people to the ME. It is simply about moving masses of increasingly wealthy people from East to West and back. Given the massive numbers involved and the perfectly located geography of the ME, there is likely to be more ME based carrier rather than less, and that can be evidenced by the expansion of Turkish.
sorry for thread drift, but it is relevant to earlier posts
Last edited by virginexcess; 20th May 2013 at 06:12.