There's a few things that I think are becoming increasingly obvious (and that are driving UK Defence Policy:
- The possibility of future large scale "Nation State" warfare is considered remote - at least in the developed western world
- The probability of on-going or new low intensity interventions that UK could be involved in is relatively high
- The likelihood of the UK acting independently in any future conflicts is low
- 9/11 is still fresh enough in the mind to mean that homeland point defence remains a priority
- UK plc still wants to be recognised globally as a "player" (G8, UN perm sec council member, etc)
With the above being said the UK Defence posture will continue to evolve much as it is doing now and that means:
- Many fewer FJ's, MBT's, frigates, etc
- Ever increasing reliance on multi role platforms and smaller more highly deployable forces
- Acceptance that many capabilities considered core until relatively recently will no longer be so (and that we would expect close allies to provide those same capabilities if actually needed)
- Further moves away from manned aircraft to UAV's
- retention of the Nuclear deterrent
FWIW I firmly believe we will eventually get a small force of F-35's but I don't believe the Carriers will survive the next SDSR. GR4 will be pensioned off prematurely leaving us even more exposed when it comes to strategic effect (Typhoon is never going to truly cut it in this arena despite what some might want to believe).
As for the supposed shift back to East of Suez then I see this as nothing more than a relatively lame attempt to shift a few dozen Typhoons onto Gulf states.
All my opinion of course!