You can run forever without SMS. African, Asian, Greek, Italian, Spanish, Turkish etc. airlines will have to do so (no matter what it says on their paperwork). The reason is that these are punitive cultures - the reporters and/or perceived transgressors will be sanctioned. Therefore, the predictive 'life blood' of the system - reports from the lowest level of the organisation and objective, transparent, blame free incident/accident reports are not features of these areas of the world. And even if legal framework for such systems were installed tomorrow it would take a generation for them to become taken for granted.
Then think about the those who lead the organisations without SMS. Will they sleep well at night? Which in many ways is what it's all about. In a punitive culture they know that they will deal with any violator by sacking them and if its a "biggy" the justice system will do the rest. Nothing quite like "shooting the perp." That will stop re-occurrence! Why, because even in Britain the majority of the public and their 'red top' press (and I'll include the Express and the Mail) love a good lynching. We are also fortunate in having the AAIB and a slow legislative system.
For SMS to work, the surrounding environment has to be prepared. The foundations are a 'Just Culture' with protection for reporters and those who make honest errors - and that doesn't happen overnight and will not happen in less developed parts of the world for a few years yet. We will have a few more wrecked aircraft in towing accidents, scary flight profiles and smoking holes in the ground first.
PM