Thanks for your intersting and well thought out post. I've come around to thinking that FTOs are generating CPLs and FI(R)s at a rate which the market simply can't absorb at present. That's mainly due to the despicable lack of invesment in ab-initio training by the airlines........
If this was an honest industry, airlines would select future pilots after extensive aptitude and academic testing. They would then take them from PA28 to A320 in a properly structured training programme. But they don't - they rely on mainly self-funded pilots who have slaved, scraped and scrounged their way to the airline. Hardly an honest professional training methodology....
Regarding the NPPL, quite honestly I've flown quite a few JAR-FCL PPL Skill Tests on pilots with the minimum hours and, if they were well trained, then they passed. No problems. The NPPL is about the same as the UK PPL which I did in 1968 - I don't foresee any significant problems, but Examiners are agreed that they won't lower their standards in the NPPL NST or GST........