May I try to summarise the last twenty pages?
The weather was unremarkable. We are told that the stop at Bagram was for fuel only, so the cargo configuration was presumably unchanged. That being so, a lashing problem or a cargo CG problem seem unlikely. If the fuel taken caused a large and for some reason unrecognised change in longitudinal CG, the loadcell on the nose leg, assumingthat it was fitted and operational, would presumably have triggered an alarm. An incorrect horizontal stabiliser setting would have triggered an alarm when the throttles were advanced to take off setting.
Thus, all the "simple explanations" for this accident can be eliminated.
We can reasonably assume that the crew did not attempt any abnormal evolution, so we may assume that the aircraft departed in an essentially unflyable condition, which was unknown to the crew until the aircraft was airborne, and which they were unable to correct in the few seconds available to them.
What remains for speculation, pending the publication of the report of the NTSB investigation, is the possibility of a combination of circumstances, no one of which would have been fatal in itself, which led to the aircraft departing in such an abnormal configuration.
Last edited by Methersgate; 4th May 2013 at 12:45.