cucuotto,
Would you bet even a modest sum of let's say 10,000 €/ 15,000$ on the prediction (sp) that oil would be 30$ in two years? I bet that even the analyst who did this guessing wouldn't.
Two years is a short term in financial/economic consideration and we don't have anything in place to replace a serious percentage of mineral fuels using on ground transport. And Wizofoz is right on the corellation between cost and consumption.
Oil is here to stay and Gulf countries are taking formidable advantage of their low taxation and location.
Rwy in Sight