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Old 1st May 2013, 22:50
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Comanche
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
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The world is slowly reaching maximum possible oil production = peak oil. Current oil production can be maintained, possibly grown slightly but at great expenditure and effort. Fracking and projects like the Artic National Wildlife Refuge barely make a dent, mostly around 1% of current global production (85 million barrels per day or so). New discoveries and techniques can barely offset existing declines. This is from the supply side.

From the demand side, 80% of the population is only just starting to consume oil with most incremental demand coming from emerging economies. At 2% average annual growth rates, a new Saudi would have to come online by 2025. Exponential growth is one of nature's biggest forces. Unfortunately, supply growth rates (if any growth) are not.

Never say never to $30 a barrel, but it's highly unlikely. Oil prices fluctuate more wildly due to many factors involved, but it's an oscillating upward trend. Hydrogen is an energy sink. Electricity will still need to be produced. Windmills only deliver electricity around 25% of the year the first years, then wear will reduce their load factor to around 15%. Current generation alternatives will not replace fossil fuels at the same rate and scale at which the world currently consumes them. 85 million barrels per day is around 4 olympic size pools per minute.
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