Perhaps you could explain what Windshear/Microburst conditions are?
This is from NOAA . . .
forecasting methodologies
There is at present an insufficient observational database from which to develop a comprehensive forecasting scheme for microbursts; however, there are enough data from the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) project on which to base and design an objective forecasting algorithm for dry microbursts. Data from the MIcroburst and Severe Thunderstorm (MIST) project plus case studies of the Gulf Coast and Florida area provide sounding based thresholds for wet microbursts. The development of a comprehensive forecast scheme for microbursts is for the moment on hold, until the required field project data are taken.
Microbursts in classic severe storm environments
The aircraft accident rate due to microbursts in association with classic severe local storms is practically nonexistent for commercial aviation, since the system is apparently well designed to protect passenger jets against well-organized, long-lived, and highly reflecting storms and therefore automatically protects aircraft from any microburst components of these storms. By simply avoiding classic severe storm types, such as squall lines and supercells, pilots are already avoiding any microburst components of these storms. However, aircraft are not well protected from wet and dry microbursts that are an unexpected component of isolated airmass-type thunderstorms, and rainshowers.
The predictability of microbursts in a dry environment
Krum (1954) first described the typical sounding associated with dry thunderstorms that produce strong downdrafts. Prediction of dry microbursts from local soundings was explored qualitatively first by Brown et al. (1982) then by Wakimoto (1985) based on JAWS (Joint Airport Windshear Studies) project data. A preliminary, quantitative prediction scheme also based on JAWS project data was proposed by
Caracena et al. (1983a) and Caracena and Flueck (1986 and 1987a and b), demonstrating that the virga-type microbursts in that form in dry sub-cloud environments can be forecast in terms of upper air data. What remained to be found were a means of forecasting microbursts in a wet enviroment in association with heavy rain. These were the type of conditions involved at New Orleans International Airport at 21 10 UTC 9 July 1982, when Pan American Airways Flight 759 crashed after attempting to take off through a wet microburst (Caracena et al., 1983b).
Predicting wet microbursts
Atkins and Wakimoto (1991) analyzing data from the 1986 MIST (MIcroburst and Severe Thunderstorm) project conducted in northern Alabama found that in all five days when wet microburst occurred, the equivalent potential temperature differences between the surface value and the minimum aloft were 20 deg K or greater. On the other three days with thunderstorms, but without microbursts, there were equivalent potential temperature differences of 13 deg K or less. Atkins and Wakimoto (1991) also examined data from other well documented wet microburst cases, such as happened near Chicago (Fujita 1985), near Edmund, Oklahoma (Eilts and Doviak 1987), and southern Florida (Caracena and Maier 1987). They found that in all these microburst cases, the equivalent potential differences were greater than 20 deg K.