This post from www has made me mad.
Since Sept 11 WWW has done nothing but post negativity as soon as he hears something detrimental with respect to pilot job prospects. Some of the figures he has printed have been way over the top and the doom and gloom that he posts is very speculative and unrepresentative of the industry as I and many others view it. I am not a Go 737 pilot but I do have close friends in many UK airlines working as pilots and in other jobs too. Also I have many friends working as instructors and also have good relationships with a couple of flying school owners. The message I get from everyone is there are jobs out there and things are not as bad as you may think. None of the flying schools I use have had drops in bookings or noticed any down tern in trade what so ever. Yes I know about the cadet sponsorships that have been cancelled or put on hold.. Does WWW not realise we are in a position of uncertainty at the moment and until we KNOW what is happening we should not cast out silly rumours that may damage peoples motivation and aspirations. I am training for my JAR CPL and I am on the home run now, I have two FI job offers already just by getting out there and getting to know people.
When it gets to the point when we KNOW there are going to be very few jobs and we KNOW it will be as bad as after the Gulf war then WWW can get on his soapbox.
WWW I do appreciate everything you do for this site (apart from the above).
Well excuse me for making you mad. Obviously I should keep quiet about the whole thing - in the words of Lord Melchet "Baaa, thats right George, if nothing else then a blind refusal to look facts in the face will get us through, baaa"...`
Of the figures I have used that have been "way over the top" would you care to use specific examples..? As for your close friends not seeing a slow down in GA well thats fine and dandy - neither has the fto owner to whom I refer seen a slowdown yet. There might not be a GA slowdown. WHAT THERE WILL BE is about 1,100 people with CPL/IR's chasing every job come next spring. Which means that at least 30% will do, or hold, FI ratings which means that Mr FTO owner will be oversubscribed by 100% for every job.
That is his view as of last night. As now past on to you guys. For what thats worth.
Oh and its not someone for whom I have ever worked in case people are wondering.
200V - as for KNOWING that its as bad as the Gulf War and that there are very few jobs - well it is and there are. Yep things will pick up in a year or two. Just like the Gulf War. Yep the underlying conditions are good for recovery. But look at the facts. I would be being irresponsible if I did not spell out quiet clearly the pertinent conditions of the Wannabe marketplace. Its what I have always done here. Its just that for the last few weeks - and for the 1st time since PPRuNe came into being - those conditions have been negative.
What motivation do I have to paint things in too bleak a colour I ask you?
Anyhows.
To those that do not remember - following the Gulf War slowdown FI's on PPL work with little experience were generally paid nothing at all. Many were "on the list" at several schools whereby they would get a call if work was available that day. Like being on permanent standby. They would make no charge for their work in exchange for hours and currency. Some of the more enlightened FTO's paid £5 for turning up for the day if called. There were lots of regional variations depending on circumstance. Flight International carried at least a double page of Jobs Wanted ads by type rated jet Captains.
Its supply and demand pure and simple. The UK already has enough flying instructors. The UK will not have any jobs for those FI's higher up the food chain for the next 12 months. Of the hundreds and hundred of low time CPL/IR's out there several hundred will do FI ratings. There will be a glut of FI's. Wages will fall. FTO owners know this. FTO owners talk to me. I pass it on to you. DON'T shoot the messenger.
I hope it does not happen as much as you. I have several good chums working as Flying Instructors - remember I was one until Feb this year...
Cheers,
WWW
[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]