Originally Posted by Courtney Mil
I don't think I can remember a time when anyone came up with a true estimate of a future aircraft's operating costs. No point in getting too excited about it yet; there is a long way to go and way too many unforseen issues yet to come. With the best will in the world, today's estimates are always based on the current state of the project and/or what the forecastesters hope will convince the people with the purse strings to remain on side.
Yes! At last some intelligent commentary on this issue!
Just like every jet that has come before it and every jet that will come after it, the F-35 operating cost will be comparatively high at first as initial support contracts are let and corporate knowledge builds up. But as the second round of support contracts are tendered and as the fleet grows, it will come down the bathtub curve until the fleet size and level of experience is such that it will flatten out to an optimal level (with occasional bumps as new software loads or tech refreshes are added). It will then start coming up the other side of the bathtub as the jet ages and major components needs additional maintenance or refurbishment. No one can honestly predict with any certainty what numbers to assign besides these points on the curve...
This is probably as much the USG's and LM's fault as the general commentariat, but we're all so keen to compare the F-35 with the F-16 or F/A-18 (both of which, in Block 40/50 or late C/D & early E/F forms respectively are currently hitting their 'cheapest they'll ever be' points in their operating cost curves), that we're missing the point. 'Out of the box' the F-35 will be more capable than the F-16/FA-18/Harrier/insert 4th gen type here it is designed to replace, and inevitably, there will be an initial cost imposition associated with such a capability leap.
If you want cheap to maintain fighters (and thus to just maintain parity with other current types) then by all means buy more or refurb F-16s/FA-18s/F-15s/Gripens etc....and then in 15 years time you'll be going through this same process again and thinking, "If only we hadn't spent all that money on an interim type/refurb, and instead bought new F-35s!"