@ Gobonastick
I've had a good look at the available ADS-B data from FlightRadar24, which terminates as the aircraft intercepts the extended runway 09 at 29NM from the threshold (abt. 28.5NM from ditching). At 0700Z the ADS-B reported - posn 8.7093S 114.6923E, alt 8350, gs 291KTS, V/S 1536FPM, hdg 128T. The impression I have is that the Lionair 738 was #1 in sequence to a Virgin Oz 738 approaching from the SE which was clearly able to join for 09 earlier but appears to have been given a speed restriction.
Without knowing LNI1904's ATC clearance, it looks as if it was cleared to join for 09, but at 0700 it was already low on the extended glide slope, and some other factors indicate that they kept their speed up until fairly late on the approach. Assuming they configured rather late for landing, there may have been more concern in bleeding speed off rather that watching their V/S, which resulted in the aircraft getting on the wrong side of the drag curve when they ran into a heavy squall. With AoA margin decreasing in the rain, any NU resulted in the reported "sinking feeling" at CLmax break. Luckily for everyone, there wasn't too much available airspace and the A/C belly flopped into the tide.
As for the Virgin Oz 738, it joined RH for 09 at about the same time as Lionair started paddling in the coral, and was immediately vectored to the ESE on a long RH circuit to rejoin and land 20mins later at 0730Z. Its position prior to the Lionair accident and shortly after may account for various reports attributed to "eye witnesses" by the media.
@ PJ2
Guessing that the A/C was probably 15 degrees or more NU at impact with the Bali Strait, the resulting dolphin dive probably caused the wipers to go vertical!