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Old 17th Apr 2013, 17:00
  #481 (permalink)  
PEI_3721
 
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BOAC, re “… a little concerning given the prevalence of 'magenta-line kids'.” (#487)
Yes; IMHO the example incident (#484) shows that even with experience (which may take at least 10 yrs to accumulate) there are some situations where all experience, quick and accurate appreciation of the situation, and correct action, are required to avoid an accident.
The human aspects in accidents appear to be a problem of continuing assumptions in regulation, where in a few rare and extreme occurrences the human is expected to manage. However this assumption may not now be valid throughout the industry, particularly with reduced opportunity to gain the required level of experience.

This evolving problem may originate with selection and training standards, which appear to be in decline, or that the regulations expect too much of human capability given the current professional and social cultures; instant gratification, weak attention span, a Google-its knowledge base, etc, etc, and ‘follow the line’ (SOP-its, use autos / FD / computer generated answers).
Thus what appears as human weaknesses in operation – ‘why weren’t threats and errors detected/avoided/mitigated’, are artefacts of the industry’s expectation. Thus the industry should perhaps not have such high expectations, limit operations, and provision aids to help the human; e.g ground based wind-shear warning and precision approach paths.
Note that in the example incident (#484), the crew generated an altitude/range model for their NPA; the Bali approach chart does not have a range/altitude table.

Last edited by PEI_3721; 17th Apr 2013 at 17:24. Reason: edit re #491
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