Simon Hradecky just added this passage, highlighted today in yellow, to his Aviation Herald entry:
"A witness on the ground observing the arrival of the aircraft from the terminal building of Denpasar Airport said, that he could see the aircraft descend towards the aerodrome at a normal rate of descent, but only realised something had gone wrong with the approach when the aircraft hit the waters instead of touching down on the runway. There was no rain or other obstruction of visibility around."
Accident: Lionair B738 at Denpasar on Apr 13th 2013, landed short of runway and came to stop in sea
This does not jibe at all with the crew coping with torrential rain and no visibility.