Dances,
Like your reasoning, I wish it could be that simple. If there is a company that could get it wrong, then NATS would be my choice.
Currently there is about 6 months of useful ATSA time out of a T&D before their SVC. Once the waiting time for SVCs goes down in the 6 months of no College output there will be a shortfall of ATSAs. Also, and correct me if I am wrong, there is currently a recruitment embargo on all positions except TATCs.
I think we may see sector closures in the not too distant future because of lack of ATSAs. I really hope that NATS will sort things out.
CB