The only certainty in the European airline world is more consolidation in the next ten years and no one is safe.
Peter47 mentions the changes in the USA but you can easily list the ex-carriers who had it worked out - until times changed (PanAm/TWA/Eastern and all the rest). Over time, the small grow bigger. Then they get Big. And then they over reach themselves ...
As has been discussed in other threads talking about the major UK airline that is now well into it's mature years - list the companies that are still big AND comanding their market AND are 100 years old. Not just in airlines but all commerce? It's a rule of thumb that very few are able to break.