FAA Grounds 787s

[Cool Guys]

Here we go with the odds thing again

I'm not sure what the issue is with probabilities. Do you think mechanical and electrical devices are perfect? They have a zero chance of failure? Unfortunately this is not true. This is the case for all devices us humans make, including nuclear power stations. There could be another nuclear accident tomorrow, but it is highly unlikely. This is life. This is why we have contingencies and redundancies. If this were not the case every plane would have just have one engine. If there is a 1 in 10 million chance of a blade failure knocking out an engine there is a 1 in 10 trillion chance of a twin engine blade failure. This means the chances are so low that there will probably never be a twin engine blade failure within the time period that humans inhabit earth but unfortunately this is an over simplification. Even though the chances of a twin engine blade failure is so high the chances of hitting a flock of grease and knocking out both engines is probably less than 1 in 10 trillion, but all is not lost, if you hit a flock of geese there is a chance you can still make it safely to the ground with no engines.

Unfortunately with the 787 the chance of battery thermal run away was considerably less than 1 in 10 million (do not know if this is a real probability, it is just what I have read on this thread) It appears the actual chances of a battery failure were down to 1 in 100 thousand. and it seems the contingency for a battery failure, i.e. the containment box had a probability of failure of 100% (in the event of a battery fire) which makes the possibility of a battery fire bringing down the plane an unacceptably high risk which is why the FAA grounded the bird. Hopefully Boeing can get these probabilities back up to where they belong, i.e. 1 in 10 million for the batteries and perhaps 1 in 100 million for the box so the chances of a battery failure and a box failure at the same time bringing down the 787 is so remote that it will probably never occur during the life of the plane.