The truth is that it is incredibly hard to predict. I speak as one who has been wrong on numerous occasions over this issue - I keep thinking the music has stopped and then more and more people get promoted. We are never going to be a real 'career airline' in the sense that a national carrier is and therefore there will always be people leaving at the far end without retiring. The big unknown is whether or not we expand much beyond our current size - Stelios wants us to shrink but the Board wants a cautious 5-6% growth a year. My own view is that Stelios will bale out little by little and his already lessening voice will become more and more irrelevant, but again that is a guess. The other unknowns are the recruitment plans of BA - if they open their doors again, and I believe they will, then numerous pilots (Captains and FOs) will be gone. We could easily lose 300 in a year for that alone. The other interesting factor is the sandpit - will more and more people leave to go there, particularly if they go for London bases? Finally, if companies like Iberia/IAG implode, will we decide to have a rapid expansion to take up the empty places, rather than let Ryanair get in there first. Past experience is that we never miss an opportunity to come second, but maybe that will change. Again, these are all the unknowns and we can all have our opinions, but the bottom line is that no one really has a definitive answer. Given that, I think 15 years to command is very unlikely but 8 years is not.