My view is that the pilot was mentally distracted by his worry about the upcoming landing in a strong cross wing and possibly wasn't paying attention to his airspeed during his base to final turn. The strong cross wind would have been blowing him across the runway centreline as he turned final and would have required him to turn tighter than normal to maintain centreline, particularly if he was not anticipating it.
I referred to the in-flight conditions in my earlier post (#5) having landed just minutes after the accident. My track to Parafield from Hope Valley Reservoir was "direct to the field (316T) at 1,500 ft" for 21L. Having the benefit of a wind vector display on the G1000, I noted
ALL tailwind at 22K (135T).
Even with the benefit of real time data, my turn onto final 21R (last minute change of runway) with constant bank, appeared to overshoot a little, however it was an illusion - I downloaded my Garmin portable GPS track which showed the roll out onto final had no overshoot at all.
There's been plenty written about illusory effects from turns in the circuit with crosswinds, probably because it's caught out others and will continue to do so.