The medicals are a tricky figure to interpret, as overseas pilots would not renew medicals when they go back overseas.
That is, a surge in overseas trainee pilots would lead to an initial increase in medicals, followed by a drop as they leave the country on completion.
Anecdotal evidence, from a number of recent graduates and junior instructors, is that the industry is presently quite robust. Seems like any qualified instructor could pick up a job quite easily.