Don't get too hung up on retirement numbers. Remember that those who retire are the highest-qualified, experienced commanders and trainers. Their replacements have been in the airline for some years already. I appreciate that you are looking at the total number of pilots in the airlines, but you are making assumptions about the future plans of those airlines that you can't justify.
Basically, you can't plan your future employment prospects based on retirement numbers. Far more relevant are stated expansion plans and announced recruiting targets. If there is no sign of either, then your chances of employment probably aren't good - at least in the short term.
Scroggs Virgin/Wannabes Moderator
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