Pilot shortage?
Not exactly...
This is just my personal opinion, but I don't think "pilot shortage" is an entirely accurate way to describe the situation which exists. There is no shortage of pilots with the qualifications to do the job. Not now, not within the last ten years and not in the near future. However I do believe there is a distinct possibility that regional airlines might still find it a small challenge to fill those vacant seats with pilots meeting the minimum qualifications due to the pay and conditions offered. The distinction between "pilot shortage" and "shortage of pilots willing to accept what's offered" seems subtle I know, but it's an important one nevertheless.
Small signing bonuses may entice a number of of pilots to apply who otherwise would not have, but even that might not be enough. In my perhaps not so humble opinion, airlines are simply going to have to "pony up" with regard to the pay and conditions if they want to fill those seats with qualified pilots. Time will tell whether incurring this additional expense will be deemed justifiable within their business model. Given recent trends in the airline business, I have my doubts...
So the new qualification rules may cause a slight and temporary bump in demand for new regional pilots. Capacity may even be decreased in the most extreme case. But this is a result of market demand versus market price, not by an actual supply shortfall in qualified pilots. The qualified pilots are out there, but unable or unwilling to accept what's on offer. The signing bonuses are an indication of the airlines recognition of these facts, but do little to address the real issue of pay and conditions in the regional airline business. They are a temporary measure intended to address a temporary shortage of qualified pilots in the applicant pool.
Now if we would only see a return of demand for pilots in the medium bizjet sector!
westhawk