There have been many emotive comments about regenerating UK MPA capability, much of which are frankly rubbish. So let's examine, hopefully logically, a few of the issues:
What type of aircraft? The two most obvious options are a "high end spec" MPA, or a "low spec" option. For the first we are looking at something like the P-8, fully capable of carrying out the full range of MPA tasks, including autonomous ASW. For the second we are looking at something more like the CN-235, for a reduced number of roles. Which do you go for? Well it's the classic trade off between capability and cost. Does the military requirement call for an MPA that is capable of all roles - and can the budget afford it? Personally I think that if (AND IT'S A BIG IF!!) the UK gets back into the MPA role it will more likely at the lower spec end, purely on cost grounds. Maybe 5-6 CN-235s?
When? Everyone talks about the 2015 SDR being the decision point. Lets discuss that. First of all, it's the very earliest a decision would be made. But when will the 2015 SDR take place? The next UK general election is set for 7 May 2015. Personally I can't see the SDR taking place before the election, so we are talking mid to late 2015, assuming the Tories get back into power - if Labour win they aren't committed to holding an SDR that year, if at all, that was a Tory pledge. Assuming the current lot get back in, what will be the state of the nations finances? Well, their original plan was to halve the UK annual deficit by 2015. That now isn't going to happen until at least 2017, and Cameron and Osborne have both talked about austerity measures going on until at least 2020. So, money will still be very tight, no great extra pot of money is likely to be available. Given what I used to know about MOD procurement budgets, there used to be a 10 year core spending plan - if MPA provision isn't already in it then either more money will have to be found, or something else will have to go. In terms of "something else going", they are already talking about keeping Sentinel beyond 2015, which wasn't in the original plan, and will need to find it's own funding stream to continue, even more reason why funding for an MPA would be problematic. Most likely outcome in this scenario - put things off until the 2020 SDR? Finally, if some sort of MPA was ordered in late 2015, when would it arrive? Well, the Indians were due to receive their first P-8 3 years after their initial order, so, unless the US gives us priority in the production line, we are talking 3 years, 2018, for first aircraft delivery, more like 2020 until in service, maybe quicker for a lower spec aircraft.
Who will operate it? Firstly RAF or RN? I have no issues with the RN operating MPA, many navies around the world operate their nations MPA, and it makes logical sense. However, depending on the fleet size, and number of crew per aircraft, can the small FAA produce the number of aircrew that may be required in the relevant timescale? If the RN does operate any future UK MPA, it makes the RAF seedcorn initiative fairly pointless, which isn't in itself a reason not to do so. If the RAF do operate a future MPA, then who will they man it with, in terms of rearcrew? The seedcorn consists of WSOs and AEOps (I know they are all technically WSOps - but they have AEOp training and experience) with Nimrod experience. Well, we no longer have a WSO trade, we don't recruit or train, and the available pool will be pretty small by 2020, especially for an aircraft with a 20+ year lifespan. Start recruiting again? Is a training system for the very few that would be required cost effective? Do they do RN observer training prior to an RAF MPA OCU? Is the back end manned purely by SNCO aircrew (why not?). In terms of AEOps, once again the training system is closed (basically all WSOp training these days is effectively LM), and the vast majority of AEOps were made redundant. Start recruiting and training again?
So, in summary. We probably can't afford as a nation to go "high spec" MPA again. No decision will be made until at least 2015, at which point the country will still be broke, and we may have just had a change of government. If the decision was to proceed the earliest we are likely to have anything in service would be 2020. Neither the RAF or RN are particularly well placed to man any future MPA, although they would have a few years to prepare. The RAF have in place a seedcorn initiative of redundant trades who, while they might form the basis of an OCU staff, probably aren't sufficient in numbers, or young enough (average age of seedcorn personnel?), to provide any long term front line experience on a new aircraft - FTRS until 60 anyone?
All in all a pretty bleak picture - but some out there still believe.
See post 25 for my opinion of seedcorn - it represents little more than an excuse for ministers to say the capability can be quickly regenerated.
Last edited by Biggus; 7th Mar 2013 at 12:19.