Pace
I am not quite certain what the bet is. Is the bet that none of this will come to pass and something will be worked out?
If so you are probably correct - so much of this still seems very fluid, with so many vested interested and lobbying groups.
You only have to recall the IMCr debacle and those on this very forum who said the IMCr was dead in the water and were taking all sorts of bets. I told them it wasnt because I believed it was worth fighting for. There was a petition on the No 10 forum which a few sort to scupper or ridicule and AOPA got the whole thing around there neck before coming to their senses (for a change). Any way the comeuppance was the nay sayers were wrong and the IMCr is here to stay with real progress on the EIR - these things are well worth the fight.
However you better get enough influential people to fight your corner - and there probably are plenty because that is the only way change is brought about. Personally I suspect there are enough EASA policy makers who would still love to see Europe having effective oversight of every pilot operating in its airspace. ( I wish I could say "our" airspace but the policy makers think its theirs
).