But lord only knows what is going to happen in the next 5 years
Simple, the accident rate will rise, quite slowly at first, as more untrained pilots get caught out by the weather.
Another piece of daftness, a FI does not need to be an IRI to teach for the 10 hours IF on a CPL course, but does if its the same 10 hours for a BIFM! The BIFM is dead in the water.