3BB,
Manning may well know that they forecast a shortage but it seems that convincing the Treasury is another thing entirely without evidence of a shortage (and apparently there isn't one at the moment).
From my chats with Manning, I think anyone holding out for an FRI may well find themselves running out of time...
High Spirits,
I don't think it does weigh true - it is widely acknowledged that you need to continue recruitment to maintain continuity in the workforce. This is about maintaining the experienced end of that line. I think we all wish it was a direct equation of "leave at 38/16...MoD pays £Xmillion to replace you" as that would work quite nicely for all of us right now. If only...