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I heard (on the Batchelor and Alexander show) last night that the ex-Orlando Sentinel NASA beat reporter said after Challenger the whole nasa staff knew their was only a 12% that any shuttle would come down safely. If I find the link I'll post it.
Whilst I've no doubt that you're quoting correctly, I think this is a rather libelous thing for anybody to say about a group of highly trained aerospace professionals. I don't for a moment believe that it is true - who in such a case would send people up. Also, the statistics simply don't bear out the point.
Re: Russian capsules. The apparently spherical shape is an illusion, the bottom is actually about the same shape as the Apollo capsules, it's just that the top continues round in something rather more resembling a sphere than NASA's preferred cone. I suspect the Russian system is rather more structurally elegant, but otherwise very similar. Small corrections were aerodynamic through built in combination of shape and CG (a bit like a weeble). Large corrections were via small motors in the apex I think - but this was really only for the earliest stage of re-entry.
Thanks for the correction about Buran heatshield. My work in Russia was mainly on Resurs with a bit of Soyuz so I'm probably just remembering the quilting as an example of alternative methods.
G