The figure below is from a paper “Risk Management for the Tiles of the Space Shuttle” by Elizabeth M Pate-Cornell and Paul S Fischbeck, written Jan-Feb, 1994.
The darkest areas in this figure are concluded to be the highest risk areas, and are located on the fuselage near the wing glove.
The report noted that the highest risk areas were not the hottest areas.
The estimated risk was made up of a combination of many factors including the chances of debris from the main tank hitting the Shuttle, where they would hit, the chances they would damage a tile, and the consequences of a burn through to equipment underneath. The study seems to have been limited to tiled areas (i.e. it didn’t cover the carbon leading edges).
I do not understand why this figure is not symmetrical in either its outline or in the shading representing risk. I assume the diagram represents the bottom surface only. If so, the left fuselage/glove area is actually somewhat less vulnerable than the right.
I don't what other people think, but in the vidio I have seen the debris does NOT seem to hit the fuselage at all.
