F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

[Lowe Flieger]

The relaxation of the specification is a bit of a worry. Of the three basics you would like from any military procurement - on budget, on time and on spec, only the last was still up for grabs. It seems F35 now has the full set of undesirables. I wasn't entirely sure if this is a permanent downgrade, linked to the development and test period, with clearance to revert to the original parameters to be reinstated later - presumably not?

All aircraft have their strengths and weaknesses, with tactics developed to play to the strengths and minimise the weak points. But it is concerning that this far into a programme that promised so much, compromises are still eroding desired capabilities. From the outside, it seems huge effort is having to be expended to take three steps back for every two forward. Having to develop more and more tactics to offset performance losses is putting workload back on the pilot when a lot of money has gone into making his/her life so much easier.

As the UK will have to use F35 for air-defence, does this have knock-on operational constraints? If the UK were acting in isolation, does this now mandate at least one if not two T45s to provide protection? Will we have enough ships to protect the carriers (a long standing personal concern)? Can Sea Ceptor be fitted to POW/QE? I don't believe it is currently planned but I may be wrong.

F35 numbers have been vague these last 3 years. Officially still 138, then mooted to be 50-ish initially, with hopes that we will eventually get 'about 100'. All to be debated in SDSR 2015. But what will we know in 2015 that gives confidence to order in numbers? As capabilities reduce would it not be sensible to order small lots to find out whether it will work for us? If it does buy more. If not, don't add to the problem

If F35B falls over entirely, then there are only two realistic candidates to replace it for carrier operation - Super Hornet or Rafale. Both would require (apparently) costly modifications to the carriers. In my view there would be a very real risk that scrapping the whole deal would be a favoured economic option - no F35, no Hornets, no Rafales and no carriers - saves a bundle. So, I am really hoping that F35B comes through for us - we are in a right mugger's buddle if it doesn't. Yet the bad news just keeps on coming. Depressing.

LF