LJ,
Nope, not necessarily telling me stuff I know; I'm ploughing through the numbers as someone likely to have to make the choice at some point soon!
As far as I understand it, a level 9 Flt Lt on top rate FP will earn a shade under £59k, and a shade over £61k when he hits enhanced rate (which most who are expecting PAS offers this year or next will do before 38). At age 38, when he slides over to PAS, that means he'll enter the PAS pay scale at level 20; so his salary at age 38 is £61.3kpa.
A level 1 Sqn Ldr with top rate flying pay earns about £61.5k, and with enhanced rate about £64k. Even if he's promoted at 38, that means our career man's on £64k vs £61.3k for the PAS guy.
Level 9 Sqn Ldr plus enhanced rate FP is £73.3k. The Flt Lt PAS cap is level 30, which is £72.3k. I can't find any circumstances where the Flt Lt PAS chap manages to earn more than his mate who's promoted on the day he moves to PAS. He needs to get promoted too, but even then the very top PAS rate is only £4k per year more than level 9 Sqn Ldr plus ER FP.
Freely admit I may have missed something or may misunderstand the finer points about what happens when you transfer, but I can't see a situation until pension time where a career as a Flt Lt on PAS is more lucrative than promotion to Sqn Ldr?
Not trying to unnecessarily muddy the waters (I started looking at PAS salaries in earnest when I was 18 months from being boarded, especially when a senior PAS guy on my squadron claimed to be out-earning our Wg Cdr boss, which didn't make much sense to me...!), just hoping for some clarity before I join the droves making bad decisions....