Hey Sophia,
Following from my 2nd AD - it took 5 days to receive the next confirmation email that I had progressed to the next stage of the recruitment process (i.e. reference checks). However, it took 7 weeks for the recruiter to call my referees.
Once they had called them all, I received the next confirmation email that same day saying I was now awaiting confirmation of a ground school start date; pending outcome of the medical. So right now I'm hoping for a placement to start GS soon!
So everybody's experience is different it seems. Don't give up hope, you will be notified either way on the outcome of your application.